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Global fertilizer, fuel, El Niño and war converge into a perfect storm threatening food security

Activistpost.com warned on Oct 9 2026 that a simultaneous shortage of nitrogen fertilizer (down 30 % from 2024 levels), a 15 % rise in crude oil prices, a severe El Niño event, and the ongoing Russia‑Ukraine conflict could cut global grain yields by 12 %, jeopardizing food supplies for 800 million people in Africa and the Middle East. The compounded crisis threatens to push 45 million additional individuals into famine and destabilize commodity markets worldwide.